Artemis BJJ (PHNX Fitness), Open Mat, Bristol, UK - 11/10/2014
For the main escape, I ran through two variations, based on what I taught last time. The highest percentage option seems to be Marcelo Garcia's elbow push (technically it's the triceps, but he calls it 'elbow push' on MGinAction), he works from under a standard side control then brings their arm across. To do so, make some space by pressing into their neck and bridging if necessary, then sneaking your other hand under their arm and onto your head. Use that to bump their arm over, immediately transitioning to the pinch and shove. Still holding their arm, swing your legs straight up, then as they come down, use that momentum to sit up. Base out on your elbow, then move to basing on your hand. Continuing to push on their triceps, shrimp backwards into the space you've created, until you can recover guard.
That worked pretty well in progressive resistance and sparring. The one time I had trouble was when Paul was able to block my efforts to move the arm over by getting his elbow in tight on the near side. Easily remedied though, as you can just switch to a different escape: I went with a powerful bridge and recovered my guard instead.
I also went through the armpit push version I first saw several years ago, which was on an old Braulio instructional, with McLaughlin's video providing further details. You're under a standard side control, then they bring their arm over to the far side. Drive them towards their legs by pressing in that direction with the arm you have by their neck. This creates some room for you to get the other hand into their armpit. Straighten out your pushing arm, then try to immediately sit up in order to get onto your elbow then your hand. Keep pushing and sitting forward, until you can roll them over your hip. This shouldn't take much strength once you have them off-balance. Once that stiff arm is in place, the shrimping back to guard option is always there too, and probably more high percentage.
The problem I find with the armpit push is that their elbow is free to circle back, enabling them to recover their cross-face on top. That means if you don't get them really shoved out quickly, they will invariably wriggle back to side control. It's key to shove their head and their armpit down towards their hip, rather than just backwards.